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Expected best selling drugs of 2023

Updated: Jun 26, 2023


Evaluate has published the sales forecast of pharmaceuticals for 2023, and Merck's PD-L1 inhibitor, Keytruda, is expected to be the best-selling drug. The top ten list includes monoclonal antibodies, vaccines, and small molecules.

There is uncertainty regarding the sales of COVID-19 vaccines and drugs as the requirement is decreasing. Eylea can also feature in the top 10 list if COVID-19 vaccines and drugs cannot generate more than $10 billion in revenues.

1. Keytruda

Evaluate estimated that Merck's PD-L1 inhibitor will add another $3 billion in new sales in 2023. The drug is expected to generate nearly ~$24 billion in 2023. Keytruda is approved for almost 18 cancers.

Keytruda revenues are growing consistently, contributing to nearly 40% of Merck's pharmaceutical segment's revenues. By Q3 of 2022, Merck reported that Keytruda's revenue had increased by 20%.

Approval in the earlier stages of cancers, including triple-negative breast cancer, is helping the company in the US, while uptake in the NSCLC, HNSCC and advanced RCC is driving the revenue growth in the ex-US markets.

2. Comirnaty

Pfizer and BioNTech's COVID-19 vaccine is expected to generate revenues under $ 20 billion in 2023. Comirnaty and Paxlovid have driven the revenues of Pfizer in 2022, with the company revenues expected to touch $100 billion. The COVID-19 vaccine and tablet together generated $56 billion in revenues in 2022, which is more than 55% of the company's revenues.

Comirnaty was the best-selling product in 2022, with Pfizer's forecasted revenues of ~$34 billion. However, with the requirements for COVID-19 vaccines and medicines decreasing, the revenues are expected to reduce significantly in 2023.

3. Humira

AbbVie's TNF inhibitor, Humira, will face biosimilar competition in 2023 in the US and is expected to lose nearly 6.5 billion from its revenues. Biosimilars for Humira are already available in Europe.

Humira generated more than $150 billion in revenues in the last decade, with the product generating more than $10 billion since 2013. In 2021, Humira sales crossed $20 billion for the first time and continued the same revenues in 2022.

4. Paxlovid

Pfizer's COVID drug is expected to generate $13 billion in 2023.

In 2022, Pfizer forecasted revenues of $22 billion, which are expected to decrease significantly.

5. Eliquis

BMS' Eliquis is expected to generate revenues of ~$13 billion in 2023. The revenues of Eliquis are growing at more than 10% in the first nine months of 2022.

Eliquis was approved to reduce the risk of stroke and systemic embolism in patients with NVAF, prophylaxis of deep vein thrombosis (DVT), and treating DVT and pulmonary embolism (PE).

6. Opdivo

Keytruda's competitor, and BMS' PD-L1 inhibitor, Opdivo, is expected to generate revenues of $11 billion.

Opdivo was approved for more than ten cancers, including melanoma, non-small cell lung cancer, renal cell carcinoma, classical Hodgkin lymphoma, gastric cancer, and urothelial carcinoma.

Opdivo, in combination with Yervoy, is also approved for some advanced cancers, including advanced NSCLC, advanced melanoma, etc.

7. Dupixent

Sanofi and Regeneron's Dupixent is expected to generate more than $10 billion in revenues. It acts by inhibiting interleukin-4 and interleukin-13 and was approved for atopic dermatitis, moderate-to-severe asthma, chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyposis, and prurigo nodularis.

8. Stelara

Janssen's Stelara is expected to generate revenues of more than $ 10 billion. Janssen's psoriasis drug faces competition from several products; however, the revenue growth is driven by Crohn's disease and Ulcerative colitis growth.

Stelara's loss of exclusivity is expected in the second half of 2023.

9. Spikevax

The requirement for COVID-19 vaccines is reducing, impacting Moderna's vaccine revenues. Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine is expected to generate revenues of nearly $ 10 billion in 2023.

Moderna forecasted revenues of $18-$19 billion for 2022 in the third quarter, and the revenues are primarily from the COVID-19 vaccine. However, there will be a significant revenue drop as the demand for COVID-19 vaccines has decreased.

10. Biktarvy

Gilead's HIV drug will generate more than $10 billion in 2023. The drug grew at 8% in Q3 of 2022. It has a high market share of more than 40% for HIV treatment in the US.


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